More Jobs, Not Enough Workers

Date: Wednesday, January 08, 2003 8:41 AM

H-1B and JOB DESTRUCTION NEWSLETTER

www.ZaZona.com

Roger Herman, author of Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People
claims that a severe labor shortage will start in early 2003. Ed Potter,
president of the Employment Policy Foundation, said that we are about to
have the biggest labor shortage in history and the solution is to "build in
immigration."

http://featuredreports.monster.com/laborshortage/forecast/

Outlook: More Jobs, Not Enough Workers
by Thad Peterson
Monster Staff Writer

It may be hard to find a bright spot for battered and beleaguered workers in
today's job market, but if you can look beyond current woes, you may see
rays of light in the not-so-distant future.

Despite the news of more and more layoffs, unemployment for November 2002
was about 6 percent. That seems bad now, but not when you look at the grand
scheme. The average unemployment rate between 1950 and 2002 was 5.7 percent,
including unemployment rates as low as 2.5 percent in 1953 and as high as
10.8 percent in 1982. Ten years ago, in November 1992, the rate was 7.4
percent. In other words, it could be worse.

"There's no reason for anyone to be pessimistic here," says Ed Potter,
president of the Employment Policy Foundation. "This is not a job market
that's cratering; there's lots of opportunity out there." In fact, Potter
and others who study employment trends say the US is creeping towards one of
the biggest predicted labor shortages in its history.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of available jobs is
projected to increase by more than 22 million jobs by 2010, a 15.2 percent
increase - a reasonable, possibly even conservative, estimate considering
employment increased 17 percent between 1990 and 2000. The civilian labor
force is projected to increase by only 17 million people by 2010. This
suggests we'll be about 5 million workers short of keeping up with job
growth over the next 10 years.

Where's the Evidence?

Demographics (see chart) are driving these shortage predictions. Baby
Boomers, who constitute a big slice of the labor force pie, are getting
closer and closer to checking out of the office and into retirement,
creating a major void in the workforce.

As Potter explains, the stats point to an impending shortfall in skilled
workers. "There are certain things that one knows about the economy. You
know that the economy has grown at about 4 percent since 1948. That trend
line says certain things in terms of demand for people. You add to that how
many people are born and we know what mortality rates are, so we have a very
good idea what labor supply is. We know what typical retirement ages are. We
can make certain judgments on what Baby Boomers are likely to do -- when
they're going to retire, how many will continue to work part-time and how
many will be out of the labor force all together. And you build in
immigration."

What Does This Mean for You?

If the predictions of an acute labor shortage are true, it could wreak havoc
for corporate America, but "it's great news for employees," declares Roger
Herman, author of Impending Crisis: Too Many Jobs, Too Few People. "There's
a severe labor shortage coming. It's going to start in early 2003, and most
executives don't have a clue about what's going to happen…. Employers are
going to be forced into offering stronger compensation packages, and not
just money -- more flexibility, better benefit plans, a lot of different
kinds of things to entice people."

But both Potter and Herman emphasize that the demand will be for skilled
workers with the right training and education. "One thing you can clearly
see is we'll have huge net job gains for people with two and four-year
college degrees, but huge net job losses [for those who] don't finish high
school, and you'll barely be level if you only have a high school degree,"
says Potter.

Make the Most of It

Herman offers this advice for career-minded people who hope to capitalize on
the shortage: "Build your skills. Now is the time to be taking some courses,
reading some books, listening to tapes, and getting some other kinds of
experience to build your skills to become more marketable. The key for
people is to be ready so they can sell themselves as the kind of employees
these companies want."

Herman also suggests being proactive about figuring out where you'll land
down the road. "Now is the time to be looking at what criteria you are going
to use to choose your next employer…. Begin to target the places you'd like
to work, approach them and indicate your interest to them. Tell them, 'I
understand you're not ready to hire yet, but when you're ready, I'd like to
be considered. I'd like to join your team and here's why.'"

Potter echoes these sentiments and emphasizes workers should "pay attention
to data and trends on where the jobs are likely to be so that you are, on an
ongoing basis, developing the skills needed to make you qualified…. There's
lots of opportunity out there. It's just that people can't get locked into
[the mentality] that the job I was doing last year is the job I'll be doing
next year, whether it's with the same employer or with another employer.
People have to be adaptive."

Talk about this article and get advice on the Job Seeker message board.

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