Five reasons why the H-1B visa cap will increase

Date: Sunday, March 16, 2008 3:10 AM

<<<<< JOB DESTRUCTION NEWSLETTER No. 1838 -- 3/16/2008 >>>>>

Patrick Thibodeau wrote a thought provoking blog about the possiblility that
Congress will raise the H-1B cap. He listed five reasons, let me add a few
more:

Thibodeu may be right that the odds of thwarting another H-1B increase are not
good. The last several years have been somewhat lucky for us because industry
groups made the mistake of piggybacking H-1B expansion with the large amnesty
bills. Those of us that oppose H-1B were able to join the large numbers of the
public who opposed Comprehensive Immigration Reform bills. When CIR went down
in flames, so did the H-1B increases that were embedded in the bills.

Several attempts to amend other bills with H-1B expansions such as omnibus
spending legislation have also failed.

The introduction of bills by Giffords and Smith show a new willingness to push
stand-alone bills.

Opposition to H-1B is almost non-existent except for a few unhappy technical
workers that have been victimized by the flood of cheap foreign labor into the
U.S. So far techies and other categories of workers affected by H-1B such as
teachers and nurses have been unwilling or unable to organize -- and there is
no cooperation across career boundaries. Most opposition groups have either
withered or shut down due to lack of public support.

Employers and a growing number of immigrant worker support groups have shown
no such reluctance to organize and actively lobby Congress -- and they are
being heard. Ironically many engineers and programmers don t believe an H-1B
increase is possible because they arrogantly believe that Congress is somehow
afraid of them. Considering their lack of participation in politics that kind
of narcissistic thinking could be fatal to their careers.

The best hope that H-1B increases won t happen is that Congress continues its
reputation as "Do Nothing". Unfortunately with the pressure and enticements
Bill Gates just offered them they have every reason to "Do Something" this
time around.

So far it looks like a very one sided battle in which the only voice is being
heard is from those that want more H-1B visas and green cards.
Techies are going to lose this battle if they don't quickly get their acts
together, and judging by the fact that H-1B has been in place for over 18
years, there is little reason for optimism.

The demise of TORAW is an example that Thibodeau cited. See the second article
in this newsletter to read an eptitaph on TORAW called: "The outsourced, the
offshored, the downsized organized T.O.R.A.W." The article doesn't have a link
because it was published in a local newspaper that didn't post it on the web.

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http://blogs.computerworld.com/five_reasons_why_the_h_1b_visa_cap_will_increase

Five reasons why the H-1B visa cap will increase

By Patrick Thibodeau

Created Mar 15 2008 - 3:36pm
Two bills were introduced this week to raise the H-1B visa cap. They follow
Microsoft Corp. Chairman Bill Gates' visit to Washington [1]and his push for a
H-1B cap increase. The opposition faces a daunting task in challenging the
push to increase the H-1B visa.

H-1B proponents in Congress acted quickly to take advantage Gates brought to
the issue. U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas) introduced legislation Friday that
would retroactively increase the 2008 visa cap to 195,000 [2], as well as set
that level for the fiscal year, 2009, that begins Oct. 1. Gabrielle Giffords
(D-Arz.) introduced legislation the same week to increase the cap to 130,000 a
year [3]. The current cap is set at 65,000, with an additional 20,000 for
holders of advance degrees.

Here are five reason why opponents face a very difficult, if not impossible
task, in stopping a visa cap hike:

One: H-1B opponents have no clout

If H-1B visas weren t part of the larger immigration reform issue in Congress,
the H-1B cap would have been increased long ago. The opponents have been
piggybacking on the broader immigration debate and they know it.
But the H-1B opposition is in decline even as the debate grows more intense.
Five years ago, tech workers in Connecticut -- many working or connected to
the financial services industry (the first industry to really embrace
offshoring) -- organized a lobbying group, the Organization for the Rights of
American Workers (TORAW). By 2003, Connecticut's congressional reps had
introduced several bills -- all affecting the H-1B issue. The legislation went
nowhere, but Connecticut tech workers proved that an organized effort can have
impact. It s all part of history now. TORAW has disbanded [4], out of money
and members. The broader base of opponents are alert, well connected and can
fire off thoughtful, well researched emails to lawmakers at an instant, but
TORAW is illustrative of the anemic state of the opposition. Opponents lack
lobbying muscle in Washington.

Two: The Gates effect

Bill Gates is, obviously, a powerful proponent of the H-1B visa. But where is
the opposition s star power? Lou Dobbs isn t it. The Programmers Guild has
been effective in raising issues, but the real heavy weight organization, with
true lobbying ability, is the IEEE-USA, and it has scaled back its opposition
to H-1B visas. This group has staked out a position focused on visa reform and
improving access to permanent residency, the Green Cards. The IEEE-USA was
once more direct about the impact of the H-1B visa: In 2004, when the cap was
scaled back to 65,000 the IEEE-USA pointed out [5]: The number of unemployed
U.S. high-tech professionals dropped sharply from the first quarter of 2004 to
the third quarter. The decline mirrors the reinstatement of the H-1B visa cap
to its historical level of 65,000 in Fiscal Year 2004 from 195,000 in FY 03.
That was a strong message to send to Congress. But the IEEE-USA also
represents many academic institutions that depend on the H-1B visas. Although
universities are exempted from the cap, foreign enrollments may suffer if
students feel they have little chance of remaining in the U.S. longterm.
Universities also have strong ties to tech companies. It is probably safe to
say that the IEEE-USA, as an organization, is getting pulled in different
directions.

Three: There is grass root support for the H-1B visa

A major use of H-1B visas is to help facilitate offshore outsourcing and even
in this downturn outsourcing will continue to grow. That s the broad outlook
by industry analysts. The pressure for visas remains, even in a downturn. But
the H-1B visa has a very broad, grass root constituency that extends beyond
the tech sector. In the 2007 fiscal year, nearly 20,000 companies [6],
academic institutions, hospitals, public schools and others received only one
H-1B visa. These organizations send emails as well.

Four: The H-1B lottery is a big problem for tech firms

The forecasted demand for H-1B visas is going to force the U.S. Citizenship
and Immigration Service (USCIS) to hand out visas via a random lottery for the
fiscal year 2009 that starts Oct 1. For the 2008 fiscal year, the USCIS
received more than 123,000 visa petitions [7] in two days for the 65,000 cap.
Despite that number, the odds were still good that a petition would be
approved in its lottery. The USCIS put all those visa petitions in a hat and
selected about 100,000, rejecting the rest. The selection process works like
college admission: The USCIS accepts more petitions then it has slots and
expects a certain number of these applications to be withdrawn or
disqualified. But this year there seems to be broad consensus that the number
of visa petitions will exceed last year's total, and companies may face visa
odds of two-to-one or higher. This makes the outlook for getting a visa very
unpredictable and unacceptable to tech groups, which are now pushing for a cap
increase with special urgency. But here is an important point to keep in mind:
The people who receive visas under the 65,000 cap are more likely to only have
a bachelor degree. They are the worker bees.
The U.S. has a separate H-1B visa cap of 20,000 for foreign nationals who
graduate with advance degrees from U.S. universities. But there was no lottery
for these graduates because there was no sudden rush [8]in demand.
The USCIS filled those petitions on a first-come, first serve basis until
April 30 that year. That may change this year.

Five: Congressional support for visa

Lawmakers have moved the cap up and down before and they will do it again.
Congress will increase the cap this year or next and may make it retroactive
as well. Had an immigration bill been approved last year the cap would have
been 115,000. The open question is whether the H-1B visa will be reformed as
part of a cap increase. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) last
year pushed for a reform that set a limit on how the visa is used [9]. One
rule set a limit that no more than 50 percent of the U.S.-based employees at a
company using H-1B workers can be visa holders.
It was a measure aimed at making the India offshore firms a little less nimble
and raising it as a trade issue for India.

Links:
[1]
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9068126
[2] http://lamarsmith.house.gov/read.aspx?ID=1036[3]
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,143475-c,techrelatedlegislation/article.html#
[4]
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9053947&source=rss_news10
[5] http://www.ieeeusa.org/communications/releases/2004/111904pr.asp[6]
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9067638&intsrc=hm_list
[7] http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/H1Bfy08CapUpdate041307.pdf
[8] http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrelease/H1Bfy08CapUpdate050407.pdf[9]
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9020941

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Workers rights group disbands
The outsourced, the offshored, the downsized organized T.O.R.A.W.

By Mary Ellen Godin
Record-Journal staff

MERIDEN -- The past six years have been a wild ride for John Bau-man.

The man who organized and founded a workers rights group, lob-bied more than
100 members of Con-gress in a weekend and found himself a frequent guest on
"Lou Dobbs Tonight" has ended the battle, al-though the war rages on.

Bauman, an information technolo-gy worker and consultant, founded The
Organization for the Rights of American Workers -- T.O.R.A.W. -- after he and
a few colleagues found themselves without jobs. Bauman was a consultant for
Northeast Utili-ties when he was laid off in 2002 with 200 employees and about
30 other consultants.

Bauman and the other core mem-bers of T.O.R.A.W. noticed an exo-dus of jobs
going overseas or workers being replaced by foreign workers for less pay. In
some instances, he said, the U.S. worker was forced to train his or her
replacement, or risk losing severance pay.

"Seven years ago, the market ab-solutely dried up," Bauman said.
"T.O.R.A.W. just took off immediate-ly and became a nationwide organi-zation.
We didn t realize how big it was."
The group picked up members from the manufacturing and insur-ance industries,
anywhere workers found their jobs being outsourced.

But T.O.R.A.W. membership has declined in recent months to about 30 from about
400 in its heyday, and Bauman decided it was time to dis-band.

After six years of not working, and at age 65, Bauman and his wife Joce-lyn
live off his pension from AT&T, part-time work, consulting, and sell-ing
merchandise on eBay. Now that his Social Security benefits are se-curely in
place, he said, he can start looking for work as a IT consultant.

There are several reasons T.O.R.A.W. membership dwindled, Bauman said.
Although the group managed to rattle a complacent pub-lic with the reality of
outsourcing, it saw little real change.

Members were successful in get-ting 3rd District U.S. Rep. Rosa De-Lauro, D-
New Haven, Sen. Christo-pher Dodd, also a Democrat, and former 5th District
U.S. Rep. Nancy Johnson, a Republican, to champion their cause. The lawmakers
helped draft bills against the numbers and lengths of foreign visas, and
another bill that would give Americans the rights to apply for open positions

"John Bauman and T.O.R.A.W. deserve high praise for their tireless efforts on
behalf of American workers."
-- U.S. Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., in an e-mail they might not otherwise
know about.

Dodd credited Bauman and his group for bringing the plight of out-sourced
workers to the public.
"John Bauman and T.O.R.A.W. de-serve high praise for their tireless ef-forts
on behalf of American work-ers," Dodd stated in an e-mail.

Unfortunately for the group, other lawmakers wanted to see the bills tied to
broader immigration reform -- and Bauman knows that Congress is unlikely to
come to a consensus on immigration reform anytime soon.

Members were also gravely disap-pointed about their inability to find jobs in
their fields, and took posi-tions at home-improvement stores, as truck
drivers, in mortgage finance and anything that could support their families.
One board member went bankrupt; another is about to do the same.

"We had about 30 members before we crashed and burned," Bauman said. "A lot of
them gave up. You don t get one call for jobs."
Members also faced retaliation for their involvement in T.O.R.A.W. and for
speaking out against their em-ployers practice of sending their jobs overseas
or hiring foreign work-ers, Bauman said. He is confident that his speaking out
in local and na-tional media stymied his own efforts to find a job. Other
members have re-ported similar experiences.
"I don t regret anything I did," he said.

But Bauman s proudest achieve-ment is hearing the statistics coming from
T.O.R.A.W. s research depart-ment being recited in speeches being made on the
Senate floor, or at a rally. He credits research director Donna Kammritz, who
died of cancer nearly two years ago, for her impeccable re-search.

Bauman continues to tell people not to support businesses that out-source jobs
or replace a high number of American workers with foreign workers.

Today s workers can expect maybe five or six different careers in a life-time,
and should pick occupations that cannot be outsourced, he said.

"Whether it was fighting against the outsourcing of American jobs to another
country or speaking out against flawed trade policies," Dodd wrote, "John let
it be known to the people of Connecticut that he would stand up for their
rights as workers. I am very grateful for his hard work and diligence on these
critically im-portant issues, and I wish John much success in the future."

mgodin@record-journal.com (203) 317-2255

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