CIR And H1Bs

Date: Monday, January 05, 2009 5:54 PM

<<<<< JOB DESTRUCTION NEWSLETTER No. 1952 -- 1/05/2009 >>>>>

I have been in a gloomy mood since the first of the year, but a recent
editorial on the Immigration Law Website (ILW) really raised my spirits.
ILW's bad attitude about H-1B and amnesty in 2009 is very encouraging,
although their negativity is probably not justified.

Considering the current political scene it's difficult to see why ILW is so
dour: president elect Obama and all his cabinet support H-1B and amnesty, and
Congress is stacked with a majority of Democrats in Congress who are anxious
to pass H-1B increases and to shove the immigration issue under the rug by
passing amnesty. The only lip service they give on controlling the alien
invasion is to spend more resources on border enforcement.

Read the ILW commentary closely and you will discover the source of their
angst: YOU! That's right, you have been raising a stink about H-1B and that's
what worries ILW -- they recognize that Congress listened to you.
ILW understands that raising H-1B caps will become increasingly difficult as
unemployment continues to get worse.

The new Congress is likely to be more unfriendly on H1Bs than any
post-IMMACT Congress. This is true for several reasons - firstly,
H1Bs have been the single most criticized part of employment
immigration in the last decade;

Well folks, let's keep the stink going because 2009 is going to be a rough
ride. It would be very surprising if there wasn't a major push to raise the H-
1B cap soon after Obama becomes president. Hopefully by the end of the year
ILW will have even more to complain about. LOL!

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://www.ilw.com/immigdaily/digest/2008,1229.shtm#comment

CIR And H1Bs

The New Year will begin with Democrats dominating the Hill in numbers last
seen several decades ago. Furthermore, with Dixiecrats no longer the power
they were in the 1960s and 1970s, the Democratic caucus tilts evermore to the
left. We examine below two implications of this new left wing ascendancy on
immigration matters in the 111th Congress.

CIR Redefined:

Comprehensive Immigration Reform as formulated for almost a decade, and as
delineated in McCain-Kennedy and Kennedy-Kyl, has three parts:
Legalization, Enforcement, Increased legal channels. Lets see what each of
these meant and how that meaning will change in the 111th Congress.
Legalization includes some way to bring into legal status the vast majority of
the undocumented population, frequently in mixed-status families (with
undocumented, LPRs and USCs), it also includes DREAM. This part of CIR remains
unchanged in the new Congress. Enforcement includes massive border
expenditure, massively increased enforcement in the interior especially
against errant employers and an employment card (a de facto national ID card).
This part of CIR remains largely unchanged, however there will be less
emphasis on border security and more emphasis on anti-employer measures.
Increased legal channels has two sub parts - increased permanent immigration
quotas for both family-based and employment-based (particularly large
increases for employment-based) and increased temporary employment-based
immigration quotas for both skilled and unskilled workers (massive numbers for
the unskilled). This part of CIR will be changed almost beyond recognition.
Increases in permanent numbers will likely be postponed for the distant
future, those legalized may have to wait for a decade or two before
naturalizing. This will have the unintended effect of exacerbating the waiting
times for employment-based immigration from India, China, Mexico and
Phillipines, with EB3 for India and China becoming essentially extinct until
Congress returns to this issue. The biggest change will likely be in temporary
employment-based immigration. Gone is the hope for increased H1B numbers, gone
also is the idea that CIR will address the single-most dysfunctional part of
our immigration system - a lack of legal channels for unskilled workers. The
original draft of McCain-Kennedy made provisions for 400,000 temporary
unskilled visas per year, the Senate cut it in half before passing McCain-
Kennedy to the House which refused to even discuss it. The left-wing 111th
Congress is unlikely to make any provisions at all for temporary employment
numbers, especially in the midst of a severe economic recession. One exception
will be that CIR will still include AgJOBS, which will likely be the only sop
to increased legal channels once promised under the CIR banner.

Impact on H1Bs:

The new Congress is likely to be more unfriendly on H1Bs than any post-IMMACT
Congress. This is true for several reasons - firstly, H1Bs have been the
single most criticized part of employment immigration in the last decade;
secondly, in the middle of a severe economic recession, cutting H1B numbers,
or even suspending or eliminating the H1B program, may be a way for Congress
to deflect criticism for legalization (by implying that legalizing helps US
workers in the unionized sector, and cutting the H1B program helps US workers
in the tech and skilled sectors); thirdly, Congress can easily do all the
above without in any way endangering those in H1B status currently in the US,
since Congressional action would likely be directed against future H1B flows.
In fact, Congress might well free the current H1B workers from their employers
by legislating unlimited portability at the H1B stage without requiring a new
petition to USCIS.
This point is particularly important since success for CIR might well hinge on
the active assistance of the Immigrationvoice.org community which would
benefit from such portability. ImmigrationVoice is the only pro-immigration
lobby with a record of success in sending faxes/calls to Congress in numbers
even remotely approaching the anti-immigration side. In the larger view of all
immigration benefits, asking employers in the middle of a severe recession to
do without new H1Bs for a couple of years is a small price to pay for
legalizing millions of the undocumented. In any event, we believe that those
hoping for increased H1B numbers from the 111th Congress will be disappointed.
With Democrats controlling 58% of the membership in the new Senate and 59% in
the new House, immigration politics are about to be changed to a great degree.
Stay tuned to Immigration Daily for the latest.
We welcome readers to share their opinion and ideas with us by writing to
editor@ilw.com.

Publisher: Sam Udani Legal Editor: Michele Kim

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